02 - 03 AUGUST 1997 - KEY PARAMETERS ON ISOBARIC SURFACES FOR 03 AUGUST 06.00 UTC

by ZAMG

03 August 1997/06.00 UTC - Meteosat IR image; red: height contours 1000 hPa, green: height contours 500 hPa
The site of the Upper Level Low has already been discussed together with the typical cloud features (image above - compare Overview of satellite imagery for 03 August 06.00 UTC).
03 August 1997/06.00 UTC - Meteosat IR image; magenta: height contours 1000 hPa, green: positive vorticity advection (PVA) 500 hPa, red: temparature advection - WA 1000 hPa
03 August 1997/00.00 UTC - Meteosat WV image; black: positive vorticity advection (PVA) 300 hPa, yellow: isotachs 300 hPa, black: shear vorticity 300 hPa
The images above present the key parameters for a Rapid Cyclogenesis. Generally speaking all necessary conditions are fulfilled as before, but there are also two new aspects: The surface low can be localised at 50N/10W and the Black Stripe with the PVA maximum is immediately north of it.

So there is a strong indication of Rapid Cyclogenesis developing in the next time period. To check this possibility, the parameters for the next 12 hours, i.e. for the VSRF, are inspected.

SUB-MENU OF 02 - 03 AUGUST 1997
OVERVIEW OF SATELLITE IMAGERY FOR 03 AUGUST 06.00 UTC
INTRODUCTION FOR VERY SHORT RANGE FORECAST